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Glossary


Random Walk

Random Walk is an economic theory that market price movements move randomly. Random Walk theory assumes an efficient market. The theory also assumes that new information comes to the market randomly. Together, the two assumptions imply that market prices move randomly as new information is incorporated into market prices. The Random Walk theory implies that the best predictor of future prices is the current price, and that past prices are not a reliable indicator of future prices. If the random walk theory is correct, technical analysis cannot work.

See Also:

Efficient Market: An efficient market (in economic theory) is one in which market prices adjust rapidly to reflect new information. The degree to which the market is efficient depends on the quality of information reflected in market prices. In an efficient market, profitable arbitrage opportunities do not exist and traders cannot expect to consistently outperform the market unless they have lower-cost access to information that is reflected in market prices or unless they have access to information before it is reflected in market prices.

Technical Analysis: Technical Analysis (in opposite to fundamental analysis) is an approach to forecasting commodity prices that examines patterns of price change, rates of change, and changes in volume of trading and open interest, without regard to underlying fundamental market factors. Technical analysis can work consistently only if the theory that price movements are a random walk is incorrect.


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Risk Statement:

Naked options trading is very risky - many people lose money trading them. It is recommended contacting your broker or investment professional to find out about trading risk and margin requirements before getting involved into trading uncovered options.

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